Mood Musings

You have already decided that the stock market is making a major top now.  Actually, we collectively decided this when we voted about what mattered most to us.  I'm not talking about an election.  Our choices are reflected in what we most searched for on the internet... a few months ago. Research that spans two decades has shown that daily internet search trends are reflected in the markets a few days later and weekly search trends a few weeks later.

Analysis of internet search trend patterns show a high risk of increased terrorist activity through October 12. Geographical analysis indicates the highest probability within the U.S. is in the area surrounding Denver, Co. I hope I have your attention, as an alert such as this is not given lightly. Let me explain how this is arrived at.

Yes, it's the end of the world again this week.  I don't know about you, but I'm feeling worn out from all of these never ending crises and disasters in the news.  So much tragedy, anxiety, and fear!  Last week, the WorldMood map was looking primarily for possibly destabilizing U.S. actions while the world watched with a somber disposition.  The Trump team began to plan more aggressive actions against North Korea.  Japan nodded in agreement to the idea of an embargo.

Continuing from the last post a couple of days ago, I'm looking to see if we can get any additional information about where Irma might be heading.  Since this is new and experimental technology, there is still much to learn about what it can and can't tell us.  However, this is what the latest U.S. MoodMaps appear to be saying. Below is the U.S. MoodMap for September 9.

While sometimes alarming to discover U.S. and global hotspots, this mapping technology is becoming more fascinating each day. Before Irma was on anyone's worry list, we published concerns about a possible East Coast "disaster" and U.S. actions that the whole world may stop in its tracks over (Aug. 29 article). We then further fine tuned our U.S.

I've made one more refinement to the U.S. weekly mapping methodology, and for one thing I'm less worried about "random" disasters, and have narrowed down what appears to reference Hurricane Irma.  The previous map, produced before Irma was a hurricane and with data from several weeks ago, showed a "disruptive" mood in Florida and one that could be associated with disasters near North Carolina.

I like puzzles, but this one has really been bothering me... something important has been missing.  A significant U.S. centered event is still approaching.   Hurricane Harvey has been a heart breaking tragedy, and it is not my intention to belittle the significance of that.  However, if you have been reading these Musings, according to the weekly WorldMood map, there's something that involves the U.S. East Coast that hasn't happened yet.

The United States MoodMap for August included a large circle identified as "Disruptive" centered near New York City.  This disruptive mood pattern is often seen in association with protests and unrest.  Because of the location, it could also be associated with market disruption.  Another type of event which occurs with this mood configuration is increased terrorist activity.  This month has already seen violent protests, and instability in markets.

Usually near the low of a negative mood and market swing there is some type of "climax event" -- often a major unpleasant news story.  Recently, we've seen a terrorist attack in Barcelona and the tragedy in Charlottsville.  It would be unfortunate for another, even larger event to take place.  However, on a societal level, one of the functions of these events seems to be the creation of a brief moment when many people are focused on a singular event.

A stock market rally that won’t stop for anything has been the status quo since February 2016. There have been geopolitical uncertainties, election surprises, and political confusion, but the market has barely given a shrug to any of it. The month of August should at least give it pause, and may herald a change of trend that brings the market down… at least for a few months.